Could 2024 be the year cannabis fails at the ballot box?

Few states without cannabis legalization allow for citizen-led ballot initiatives.

For well over a decade now, cannabis legalization efforts via state ballots – whether medical or recreational – have seen great success. But starting on Tuesday, that track record may be in danger. There’s a decent chance that most – if not all – of the legalization questions this year will fail, potentially stalling political momentum for the cannabis industry.

The reasons are multifold, but a primary one is that there are few states remaining that have petition systems under which independent campaigns can put forth ballot questions to voters. Only 26 states have such mechanisms. In the other 24 – including Illinois, New York and several others that have already legalized recreational cannabis – the only way to change state laws is by lobbying the legislature.

That’s also a reason why many red states have not yet legalized; they have to wait for state lawmakers to act.

This year, it’s a handful of conservative states that reliably lean Republican that will have cannabis on the ballot. Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota will vote on recreational marijuana legalization, with Nebraska voting on medical. (A ballot question to expand Arkansas’ medical marijuana program was invalidated by the state Supreme Court.)

Both polling and history may be working against the cannabis questions.

Florida

In Florida – the most expensive and high-profile of the campaigns – marijuana also has the highest threshold to pass: 60% of voters because the measure amends the state constitution. Polls in recent months have shown support as high as 67% and as low as 49%, with the most recent two pegging support right at 60%. That means Election Night could be a nail-biter for supporters.

The measure also has a high-profile opponent. Gov. Ron DeSantis has gone to war against the amendment, although former President Donald Trump has expressed his support for it, meaning it’s even harder to tell where most voters will come down on the issue.

The first time that medical marijuana was on the Florida ballot, in 2014, it failed to pass, despite winning almost 58% of the vote. Two years later, cannabis activists succeeded and won with more than 71% support.

The Dakotas

In the Dakotas, history and politics are arguably even more stacked against marijuana supporters, with both states hoping third time’s the charm for adult-use legalization.

In North Dakota, the recreational cannabis question, Measure 5, polled at just 45% support as of September, with 40% of participants opposed and another 15% undecided, a survey by North Dakota News Service Cooperative found. The question only needs a simple majority to pass, but the campaign follows on the heels of back-to-back defeats in 2022 and 2018, when 55% and 59% of voters respectively rejected adult-use legalization.

North Dakota was, however, part of a green wave in 2016 (along with Florida) in which voters approved medical marijuana.

In South Dakota, state voters made political history in 2020 with the approval of two cannabis ballot questions at once – one to legalize medical and the other to legalize recreational, a victory that had never before been achieved by marijuana activists.

But while the medical initiative was implemented, the recreational one was overturned by a lawsuit brought by marijuana opponents, with the support of GOP Gov. Kristi Noem. A second attempt at the ballot box in 2022 lost with just 47% support from voters.

This time around, recreational cannabis supporters still have their work cut out for them, according to several polls. An Emerson College survey last month found 45% of voters supporting the question, while 50% are opposed and just 4% are undecided. An earlier poll conducted in May found 42% support, 52% opposed and 7% undecided.

Nebraska

Nebraska may be a bright spot this year, if the polls are to be believed. Voters there have a pair of cannabis questions to weigh: Initiative 437, which would legalize marijuana possession and consumption for medical purposes, and Initiative 438, which would establish a regulatory system for cannabis businesses. An Emerson College poll in September and October found solid 59% support for Initiative 437.

But like Arkansas, Nebraska’s campaign could lose on a legal technicality. As of Friday, a trial is underway in the state to determine whether the marijuana campaign used “fraudulent” means to qualify for the ballot, putting the fate of the initiatives in question