Inside The Battle Over Cannabis Legalization In Florida
Florida’s Pivotal Vote on Cannabis Legalization Faces Powerful Opposition.
With billions of dollars at stake, the Sunshine State will decide whether to legalize adult-use marijuana in November. But the ballot measure has some powerful enemies—including Governor DeSantis and a hedge fund billionaire. Here's who could tip the scales either way.
This November, when voters decide who will become the next president of the United States, Floridians will also have the chance to vote on whether to legalize adult-use cannabis. If the Sunshine State votes “yes” on Amendment 3, it will become the 25th state in the U.S. to legalize recreational use, and one of only 14 Republican ones. If the measure passes, Florida would become the first red state in the American South to legalize recreational use.
Kim Rivers, the CEO of Tallahassee-based Trulieve, the state’s largest cannabis company with 143 medical marijuana dispensaries across the state, believes the importance of Florida passing adult-use cannot be overstated. “This is a pivotal moment in the trajectory of cannabis and ending prohibition,” Rivers tells Forbes. “We have an opportunity here to make a meaningful impact on the national conversation. Florida would be a very big domino to fall.”
With only 12 weeks before Election Day and billions of dollars at stake, the fight to legalize adult-use cannabis in Florida is too close to call. Home to the country’s largest medical marijuana market, which now boasts $2 billion in annual sales, if the ballot measure passes, Florida’s legal cannabis market could bloom into a $6 billion industry (annual sales) by 2026, according to cannabis data firm Headset.
To date, Trulieve, which is also one of the country’s largest legal cannabis outfits, has donated $65 million to Smart & Safe Florida over the last two years, the organization running the Yes On 3 campaign, according to campaign contribution data from the Florida Department of State Division of Elections. Verano, another medical marijuana operator, donated $2.5 million, while Curaleaf donated $2 million to the effort. In total, the campaign has raised nearly $72 million through early August.
Boris Jordan, the billionaire CEO of Connecticut-based Curaleaf, which is Florida’s second-largest operator, agrees that the passage of Amendment 3 would have national implications as the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration is considering to reschedule marijuana under federal law. “I think Florida going adult-use forces the hand of the federal government to act,” Jordan tells Forbes. “How can you not? You have California, New York, and Florida. The last one would be Texas, and we're done.”
While 70% of Americans believe cannabis should be legal, according to a Gallup poll in November 2023, ballot measures in Florida need a supermajority of 60% to be approved and various polls have predicted opposite outcomes. According to a July poll conducted by the University of North Florida, 64% of voters surveyed said they would vote “yes” on Amendment 3. This is slightly down from a poll conducted in late 2023 when 67% of voters said they would vote “yes.” In early August, a Florida Atlantic University poll found that only 56% of respondents planned to vote in favor of the measure. “It's going to be a dog fight right to the end,” says Jordan.
Amendment 3 also has some powerful enemies. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is strongly opposed. During a law enforcement conference last month, Gov. DeSantis told a room full of sheriffs that marijuana legalization “should not be on the ballot” and that the whole matter is “ridiculous.”
“It won’t be good for law and order and it won’t be good for quality of life,” the Republican governor said.
Meanwhile, Ken Griffin, the hedge fund billionaire who moved his firm Citadel to Miami from Chicago in 2022, has also come out against legalization. Griffin, a Florida resident, recently donated $12 million to the fledging Vote No On 3 campaign. And in an op-ed published in the Miami Herald earlier this month, Griffin cautioned voters not to repeat the mistakes of states like California, Colorado and New York, all of which have legalized recreational cannabis.
“No one wants the effects of widespread legalization of marijuana,” Griffin wrote, "skyrocketing crime, suffering among children, a decline in the quality of life in Florida’s vibrant neighborhoods—but Amendment 3 would make it inevitable.”
Interestingly enough, Citadel Advisors, which manages $63 billion in investments, has an $81 million position in a few companies with some exposure to cannabis-related businesses, along with additional bets, both calls and puts as a hedge in case the stock prices go up or down, according to their latest 13F filing which shows the firm's holdings as of June 30th. Citadel uses this strategy across its thousands of positions in dozens of industries, from publishing to agriculture to financial services.
Trulieve’s Rivers, who has been leading the Amendment 3 effort, says she is not worried about DeSantis or Griffin. As she has been traveling Florida talking with voters, she says marijuana legalization is not connected to political affiliation. Support for cannabis has long been viewed as bipartisan.
“Everywhere from the I-4 Corridor to the Panhandle to South Florida, the feedback that I'm getting from actual voters is that they don't really care what politicians think about this issue,” she says. “For them, it is a personal issue. It's a personal decision. The notion of party or political position isn't in the mix.”
The pro-Amendment 3 side also has an array of its own rich and politically connected backers. John Morgan, the founder of the personal injury law firm Morgan & Morgan, said during a press conference in May that he supports the amendment. (Morgan also backed the successful medical marijuana ballot measure in 2016, earning the nickname “Pot Daddy.”) “I believe in the people of Florida. I believe they're going to legalize it,” Morgan said. “I believe it's going to be tight.”
Roger Stone, a longtime adviser to Donald Trump who is not a part ofthe 2024 presidential campaign, has also come out in support of Amendment 3. “I will vote YES on Amendment 3 in Florida because the states [sic] current medicinal marijuana system approved overwhelmingly like by voters is user unfriendly , bureaucratic, restrictive, and expensive,” Stone wrote on X in August. “Yet another fuck up by Ron DeSantis.”
But it is the former President Donald Trump, a Florida resident, who could tip the vote in either direction. During a news conference in August, Trump said that he is starting to “agree a lot more” with cannabis legalization and that he will make a statement on Amendment 3 “very soon.” While he stopped short of a definitive stance, his comments veered toward the positive side.
“But as we legalize it throughout the country, whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, it’s awfully hard to people all over the jails that are in jail right now for something that’s legal,” Trump added.
Curaleaf’s Jordan believes Trump is the secret to getting the ballot measure approved. “If Trump comes out in support,” says Boris, “I think it's game over.”
Still, a lot can happen between now and Election Day and cannabis legalization is hardly a key issue in the national conversation. Jordan says that Governor DeSantis, who did not want this on the ballot, “will not go down easily.” He expects the Vote No on 3 campaign to get more intense. “It's politics,” Jordan says, “it's a blood sport.”
