What will 2023 spell for weed? 10 trends and predictions from Cannabis professionals
If there's one thing that can be said with certainty about the weed industry, it's that there's never a dull moment.
In 2023, that trend will continue as this relatively young industry forges ahead in the face of a possible recession, continued oversupply, and price compression, all while honing in on what consumers actually want and need.
Below, we asked dozens of industry professionals about what they think will be the big trends and developments in cannabis this year. Here are a few of the most common themes.
Price compression and oversupply will continue
Last year was challenging for much of the industry. The impressive growth seen in 2020 and 2021 did not continue in the same ways in 2022. Markets became increasingly saturated, capital became increasingly hard to come by, and oversupply put downward pressure on prices. These trends are predicted to continue this year.
“As we are experiencing oversupply, we need to make tough business decisions," said Lilach Mazor Power, president of the board at Arizona Dispensaries Association. "How do we bring more customers to try cannabis? How do we differentiate ourselves, and how do we stay profitable? How do we compete with the illicit market?"
“It's the end of an era," shared Kenny Morrison, Founder of CQ. "In many instances, the price compression in the regulated market is now surpassing the low prices in the illicit market, making it tough for any brands or retailers to do well — regulated or not. I think a lot of trade organizations and people still want to blame the illicit market, but it's a commoditized race to the bottom now that the risk premium associated with gray area or illegal activity has been removed."
Consolidation will continue, but at a slowed pace
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have been a hot arena in cannabis, with large multi-million dollar deals being the norm. In some markets, mergers and acquisitions have been a driving growth strategy for cannabis businesses. Still, many feel that's not poised to continue, as capital has become hard to come by.
Masha Ty, who works in corporate growth and education at ACS Laboratory, said, “Consolidation can be a good sign because it means the industry is maturing, and many of the surviving brands are creating high-quality, lab-tested products. However, the process also eliminates some well-intentioned craft brands that unfortunately can't compete as flower prices drop, and regulations become more complex."
On-site weed consumption will continue to evolve in 2023
This year will see new ways to shop for and consume cannabis, with unique and immersive experiences leading the charge in the wake of the pandemic.
- Consumption lounges: “Lounges will change the game," said Mason Palmer, the co-founder of Smoke Honest. "Through thoughtful design, art, and experiential spaces, cannabis lounges will encourage safe, thoughtful consumption and give thanks back to the plant. You're starting to see this in LA/NYC with places like The Woods (Woody Harrelson's shop and lounge), which contains a Koi pond, scenic lighting, and mood-setting furniture."
- Events: “When we went recreational, [California] did not build in outlets for consuming cannabis. But last year, we were seeing lots of informal pop-ups and smoke seshes at various venues around the city of LA that give a social and cultural outlet to weed smokers. In 2023 here in California, events and happenings are going to be huge," shared Dan Wilson, Editor at Visit Hollyweed.
- Retail: “Head shops will need to reinvent their customer experience," advised Palmer. "Consumers will have the ability to test products in lounges now, then purchase [them]. The mature markets like California, Colorado, and Oregon are craving a better experience and willing to pay for it."
Consumer sophistication will drive product differentiation and branding
“As cannabis markets mature, cannabis brands must diversify their product lines to distinguish themselves from their competition," said Ami Ikemoto, Executive Vice President of 22Red. "As more niche products enter the market, the consumer learns about the science and benefits and becomes more educated, thus pushing brands to continue to offer new and exciting products."
And with the stigma of cannabis lessening daily, there's been an uptick in unique products and more brands touting potential benefits. “We need to be constantly innovating, educating our customers, and building our community. People want brands that reflect their personal values, to feel that they are supporting the growth of companies who do more than simply sell products," said Lisa Harun, Chief Marketing Officer of Grenco Science.
More cannabinoids and plant actives will enter the market
The two big cannabinoids — THC and CBD — aren't going anywhere. And while cannabinoids like CBN and CBG aren't necessarily new, it's predicted they will gain more traction this year alongside other active compounds in cannabis like terpenes.
“CBD, CBN, and CBG products will become hot items across a varied consumer base," predicted Mike Zens, Chief Operating Officer at High Road Edibles. "Some consumers will become increasingly familiar with the benefits of those specific cannabinoids and seek them out for their healing properties. Others will find the novelty of ratio products appealing — something different from strain-based products."
Other herbal ingredients such as adaptogens, nootropics, and active compounds from other plants will also garner more attention from industry and consumers alike.
“Brands will not be able to compete solely on THC potency and price. They will need to offer their consumers more, such as products that produce specific effects like sleep, focus, pain relief, and creativity. These effects can be achieved by utilizing other cannabinoids, terpenes, and herbal supplements," shared Ikemoto.
Infused pre-rolls and beverages will make a splash
Pre-rolls steadily gained in popularity in 2022, with 2023 being predicted as the year of the infused pre-roll. The future success of beverages has been debated, but 2023 may be the year they make inroads with consumers.
- Infused pre-rolls: “If you like [infused pre-rolls], it's not necessarily something that's easy for you to create on your own," said Brandon Dorsky, Chief Operating Officer of Fruit Slabs. "You have to have a little bit of skill to roll your own well-infused joints. And I think that there will be market demand for it because some people will just never even acquire the skill, just like some people don't ever acquire the skill of being able to roll a joint. Even fewer people have the skill to roll a good infused pre-roll."
- Cannabis beverages: “Edibles, especially elixirs and beverages, will start coming into their own this year. The 'Cali sober' movement is real as younger generations wake up to the realization that alcohol is poison to humans. Once it's recognized that you can consume a substance the same way in a social setting with little to no side effects, the shift is obvious," said Lance Lambert, Chief Marketing Officer at Grove Bags.
Not much will happen federally, but state legalization will continue
There is a lot going on at the state level in 2023. In the likely absence of any movement at the federal level, states will continue to create medical and adult-use markets of their own.
“Little is going to happen in 2023 with the shift in majority parties in the House and Senate," said Jacquie Cohen Roth, MS, Founder and CEO of CannabizMD. "Federal legislation will not be a priority, but there is a priority for the executive branch per Biden's announcement in October 2022 asking the Department of Health and Human Services to review cannabis's current Schedule 1 status."
As for states, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Hawaii are among the most buzzed about for potential adult-use legalization in 2023.
Consumers will want clean, safe, and sustainable weed more than ever
With consumer education on the rise around growing, extraction, and production methods, it is predicted that we will see increased demand for clean, safe, and sustainable cannabis this year.
“In many ways, we've seen the edibles cannabis vertical follow common food trends, and just as Americans have come to love their all-natural or organic products at the grocery store, cannabis consumers will seek out products made with solventless extracts and concentrates — even beyond edibles and into other products, like vapes. These products will be more expensive, but they'll definitely be sought after," said Zens.
"The subject of 'clean cannabis' will be a major focal point in 2023 for both cannabis consumers and cultivators," said Mark Clemons, General Manager of VJ Scientific. "There's a growing concern about all types of contamination that may be in our cannabis. As the industry becomes more mature and regulations evolve to assure safe products for all, we expect to see more uniformity and more stringent limits in test requirements."
There will be movement on unregulated hemp products and worker protections
Hemp regulations and worker protections will surge this year, as both movements gain media traction.
- Hemp regulations: “Intoxicating, unregulated, untrusted hemp products are being distributed through unlicensed retailers," said Adam Goers, Senior Vice President of Corporate Affairs at Columbia Care. "We're seeing smart adults being confused by that, not to mention that there are no age restrictions on [the products]. This problem has certainly bubbled up in the last 12 - 18 months as it had never had before. One prediction for 2023 is we're going to see legislation, regulation, and enforcement increasingly throughout the country."
- Worker protections: “Worker health and safety issues will plague the headlines — with no real recourse by those being harmed outside of costly litigation. Hopefully, this will encourage cannabis business owners to start investing the necessary resources to protect the people who show up every day to keep their businesses running. Expect ramped-up efforts from organized labor advocating for greater worker protections," said Lezli Engelking, Founder of the Foundation of Cannabis Unified Standards (FOCUS).
Scientific research will make big strides
The science of cannabis is constantly evolving, and there are exciting feats in store as cannabis research gets more funding across the board.
“In November 2022, the US Senate voted 'yes' to the Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research Expansion Act, the first-ever marijuana-specific legislation to pass in decades," said Ty. "We expect the number of DEA research registrants to increase exponentially as a result, focused on areas like cancer, diabetes, epilepsy, and pain management."
Roth of CannabizMD agreed, saying, “Central to the Act are provisions that will streamline the application process for researchers and will also make it much easier for researchers to gain access to larger quantities of cannabis. This will have a considerable impact on how the majority of our healthcare providers view cannabis, with stigma and little to no scientific understanding. We'll see an increase in testing cannabis delivery methods and devices that will deliver much-needed research data."
